Some old and new links

John Malone, The Cable Cowboy

John Malone: the mystery method behind a media empire at The Telegraph (link)

Liberty Global will fold Cable & Wireless’ equity into a special stock class, LiLac, created to give direct exposure to Latin America for those investors who want it. Malone, who already owns 13pc of Cable & Wireless, will be paid in LiLac stock, while other investors in the British company will get Liberty Global shares.

Liberty Media is buying the Formula One and will be renamed into Formula One Group (see NAV on page 22) (link)

About Annual Letters

The Best Annual Letters – Article by Jason Zweig (link)

We read tons of hedge fund letters so you didn’t have to – here’s what they said about Brexit (link)

Warren Buffett and Friends

A newer Interview of Warren Buffett (link)

An Interview from December 2000 with Tom Murphy from Capital Cities/ABC, one of Warren Buffett’s biggest investments. Seems like Warren copied Murphy’s leadership-methods (link)

How to invest like… Warren Buffett’s hero Philip Carret

Phil Carret’s ’12 commandments’

  1. Never hold fewer than  10 different securities covering five different fields  of business;
  2. At least once every six months, reappraise every security held;
  3. Keep at least half the total fund in income-producing securities;
  4. Coonsider [dividend] yield the least important factor in analysing any stock;

… read more

Foot Locker

And a report on Foot Locker (link)

but the average Foot Locker brick-and-mortar visitor is between ages 14 and 25

But online sales are still less than $1 billion of the whole company’s $7.4 billion in 2015

“How Foot Locker escaped the brick-and-mortar death spiral” on yahoo (link)

Planet Wall Street

Investorfieldguide on the long-term best performing sector (link) (spoiler: consumer-staples)

Ten Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street by thereformedbroker

The Goldman Sachs second annual Back-to-School Reading List (link)

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Coca Cola European Partners about first Half of 2016

Coca Cola European Partners released the Interim Results for the Six Months Ended 1 July 2016 (link)

Earnings:

First-half diluted earnings per share were €0.74 on a reported basis or €0.83 on a pro forma comparable basis, including a negative currency translation impact of €0.02.

Revenue:

On a territory basis, Iberia revenues were up 1.5 per cent, as revenue per unit case increased ahead of volume. Revenue in Germany declined 0.5 per cent, in part due to the impact of a transition to recyclable PET from returnable PET.

Great Britain revenues were down 10.5 per cent, driven by the negative impact of an approximately 6.0 per cent decline for the British pound versus the Euro …

Revenue in France declined 4.5 per cent, …

I will watch this. I hope the revenue-decline isn’t becoming a trend.

 

Costs:

Pro forma comparable cost of sales totaled €3.3 billion, down 3.5 per cent, or down 2.0 per cent on a pro forma comparable and fx-neutral basis.

For 2016, CCEP expects revenue to be flat with operating profit growth in a modest mid-single-digit range and diluted earnings per share in a mid-teen range, all on a comparable and fx-neutral basis.

I like that they lowered their costs.

 

Dividends:

Board has approved an initial quarterly dividend of €0.17, equivalent to an annualised dividend of €0.68 per share

I expected 0,72 €Dividend for 2016 (link), I hope they will catch up with my expectations till 2019.

 

Share Buybacks:

No statement

 

Bottom Line:

For the time being I see nothing alarming here. I realy don’t like the revenue decline and will watch this to ensure that I don’t missed some issues/problems. Also I will track their success with cost cutting though synergies. It’s the first report of them as a combined company, I’m looking forward to their first annual report.

 

___

From my 3. June 2016 Post:

This is my final calculation:

CCEP_spread3.PNG

In this calculation I assumed that:

  • Revenue, EBITDA & Income will stay flat
  • Synergies ($350mn) will unfold in 2019
  • Tax Rate 28%
  • Debt will be at 3,5x EBITDA, 2% interests rate
  • Shares outstanding stay flat

 

I have not adjusted:

  • Revenue and EBIT – maybe there is some (single digit) growth
  • Tax Rate – maybe tax loopholes in Europe will be closed
  • No FX adjustments
  • No share buybacks, note: Coca-Cola Enterprises was a big canibal (~25% in 5 years) maybe CCEP will be too

You can finde some EPS numbers from CCEP in this presentation (link)

Please check out my new permanent menu-site: “Quality Sources”

Please check out my new permanent menu-site “Quality Sources” which you should find somewere her 😉

pfeil-nach-rechts-oben_318-28808

(when you are on valuetradblog.com)

The dayly financial news are often fast, loud and not interesting in the matter – just in a cachy and scarry headline. Sometimes I have the feeling that moved sport reporters are making financial news.

On this site I want to list a different kind of source for investment ideas, advice and more which are of higher quality.

To give a foretaste, some liks you can find in on the page:

Leucadia – (link)

RIT Capital Partners – (link)

KKR – (portfolio); (publications)

Seth Klarman – Baupost (link | google search)

Jim Chanos – Kynikos (link | google search)

Yale Investments Offie – (link)

/r/SecurityAnalysis @ Reddit – linklists of institutional investors-reports and and sometimes good discussions

Note: If you know some links that could be helpfull please feel free to write about them in the comments segment.

 

Random thought on selling stocks

Circle of Competence don’t means that you have to know everything about a company and you will do fine for me – you also have to know yourself – how will you react under pressure, under seductions? As Ben Graham have written, you can find the biggest danger for your portfolio in the mirror.

One of the hardest tasks in investing is finding out how to act right when selling a stock. With this article I will look at the difficulties and forces that come into play when I’m thinking of how to sell a stock. I hope this will make me better in that area.

 

Beeing aware of some psychological pitfalls

Commitments

If people commit, orally or in writing, to an idea or goal, they are more likely to honor that commitment because of establishing that idea or goal as being congruent with their self-image. Robert Cialdini on Wikipedia

Seeing oneself as a value-investor and buying a stock is a perfect commitment according to Cialdini. Buying a stock is linked with:

  • creating a self-image (I am a value investor who is practising buy-and-hold)
  • effort (you research, you push the buy-button, you pay the money)
  • a decision
  • (maybe) making your decision public (blog, friends, your broker)

Once a commitment has been made, the psychological program that is called “I made that decision-I will stand to it” starts working. You can imagine easily how this affects the selling of an already owned stock.

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