Some links … on Danaher, Fannie/Freddie, JAB & “It’s Lit”

“It’s Lit” – a guide to what teens think is cool – by google (link)

AND THE TOP 10 COOLEST BRANDS ARE… (DRUM ROLL PLEASE!)
01. YouTube
02. Netflix
03. google
04. xbox
05. oreo
06. GoPro
07. Playstation
08. doritos
09. NIKE
10. chrome
Very nice summary of the Fannie/Freddie Case – must read (link)

Old article on Danahers style of leadership (link)

JAB of German Reimann family buys Panera Bread  (link)

 

Some Links on Canadian Housing Market, Shorting US-Malls, Mungers/DJCO Handouts … and more

Nice source of numbers, very clean: QuickFS.net – I will add this to my Investment Tools Page

 

On-beyond-Investing went to top of the Canadian Housing Market, so you didn’t have to (link)

There are, apparently, two very important things to know when dealing with real estate.  First, you have to face your fear; this fear is to be ignored and then you should ‘just do it’ and ‘buy now’.  The next step is find what you can afford and then buy it.  Ignore all ‘non-doers’, don’t overanalyze or focus on the numbers, just fucking buy.

The fact that the biggest condo developer in Canada said lenders will bend (but not break, apparently) rules to get you financing in front of 15k people with most people smiling and nodding was shocking.

 

Wall Street Has Found Its Next Big Short in U.S. Credit Market by Bloomberg (link)

Wall Street speculators are zeroing in on the next U.S. credit crisis: the mall.

It’s no secret many mall complexes have been struggling for years as Americans do more of their shopping online.

 

Putting all your eggs in one Basket? “Ackman Sells Valeant Stake After at Least $2.8 Billion Loss” by Bloomberg (link)

 

Charlie Mungers DJCO Handout 1/2  (link)

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Francisco Garcia Parames, Cobas AM, azValor

Every country except germany* has its own “Warren Buffett”. The Warren Buffett of Spain is Francisco García Paramés. He was the Star Investing Manager at Bestinver with a 16% annual return over 25 years. When he left Bestinver, their assets fell by almost a third. He had a 2 year break (two-year non-compete agreement) but it seems like he is back now.

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Links: KraftHeinz, Buffett

KraftHeinz and 3G (link)

Unlike other PE firms, which have an exit in mind from the day they buy a company, Lemann and partners have stuck with their beer venture for 28 years and counting.

 

Bloomberg: Buffett Bought $12 Billion of Stock From Election Through Friday (link)

 

Morningstar: Top 10 Investment Trust in November Link

 

The healthcare opportunity” from Mitchell Fraser-Jones at Woodford. (link) Woodford is one of my Quality Sources

As our regular readers will have gathered, we have strong conviction in the long-term investment case for the healthcare industry.

Note: Est. reading: 13 min read … how fast are you? 😉

Note2: The interactive infographics are fun

Bolloré – sum of parts

We believe the company’s stock is extremely undervalued trading at more than a 60% discount to our estimate of its intrinsic value.
– Evermore Global / semi-annual report / June 30, 2016,

 

Valuation / sum of parts

Bollore_Sum_of_parts_09_01_2017.PNG

I used market value for Havas & Vivendi (and of course their Portfolio)

I derived Value of Transport & Logistic from MuddyWaters & Evermore reports – and tried not to be to aggressive/positive here.

I used the latest Debt numbers I could find (maybe they financed their last buy of 5% vivendi – from 15% to 20% – partly with debt), I have not calculated cash.

I used a conglomerate discount of 20%. As I see the holding structure with Vincent Bolloré as value-creating, I put back 16% for his capital allocation skills (~Vincent Bolloré CARG).

The market capitalisation is according to consorsbank now at 10,4 bn €.

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Last post for 2016 – Some links

Brooklyn Investor

Is the Market overbought after this Trump-Ralley? …

Brooklyn Investor about the Market situation today (link)

 

Eddy Elfenbein

Eddy’s 25 Stocks for 2017 (link)

The ten new stocks are Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA), Cinemark Holdings (CNK), Continental Building Products (CBPX), Danaher (DHR), Ingredion (INGR), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Moody’s (MCO), RPM International (RPM), Sherwin-Williams (SHW) and JM Smucker (SJM).

CBPX, INGR, RPM are new to me, the others are High-Quality Companies. Wasn’t Axalta a BRK buy this year?

 

Valueandopportunity

MMI’s 27 Stocks for 2017 (link)

 

And finally a graph:

Maybe CBS is worth a look? Infographic: America's Favorite TV Programs | Statista
You will find more statistics at Statista

 

I wish you a good, successful and healthy 2017.

Nestlé SA

I love many consumer-staple stocks, but these are areas that tend to flourish when folks get nervous about the economy. After all, when the economy gets weak, people cut back on vacations, not on soap. On Thursday, the Consumer Staples ETF closed at $50.25 per share. That’s a 10% drop in a few months during a largely bullish overall market.
Eddy Elfenbein (link)

 

I am searching for alternative-investments to bonds as parts of my “income portfolio”. It’s the part of my portfolio which I expect to do fine in good times an bad times (when people cut back on vacations, not on soap). A lot of Consumer Staples stocks like Unilever, Nestle, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Coca-Cola (link: illusion-of-choice) are all near their 52W-Low.

 

Lets look at Nestle

Nestle is a global company, founded in swiss in 1867. They started with milk powder for babies and are now offering everything from water, soups, icecream, dogfood, nespressso to milk powder for babies.

According to their 3Q16 Presentation (page 3) their Organic Sales Growth in CHF was 3.3%, their Real Internal Growth was 2.5%. On page 14 you can find growth split by real internal growth and pricing, shown for every operating unit separately (very interesting).

 Sales by reginon:

AMS (America) 29 bn CHF
EMENA (Europe) 20 bn CHF
AOA (Asia, Africa) 16.5 bn CHF

(Each geography includes Zones, Nestlé Waters, Nestlé Nutrition, Nestlé Professional, Nespresso, Nestlé Health Science, and Nestlé Skin Health)

Nestle & L’Oréal

Nestle owns 23,07% of the worlds largest cosmetic company L’Oréal (according to LOreal)

L’Oreal is worth about 90,3 bn. € (05.12.2016 ariva.de) so their stake is worth around 20-21 bn €.

Nestle Dividend History

Dividend History (link)

They have a nice dividend history and have risen their dividend in the last 10 Years from 0.90 CHF (2005) to 2.25 CHF (2015)

 

To sum it up, Nestle is a good diversified, resilient company in an non-cyclical business. It is also a big company which is followed much (I guess getting an information advantage here is impossible for me).

 

Nestle Valuation

There are selling for:

PE-Ratio 23
FCF-RatioDividend-Yield ~3.3%
EV/EBIT 12,7

Numbers according to yahoo finance de

This is the last year chart in EUR. As we see they are down to a 52W-Low. I am not a chart-man but I guess this doesn’t look like a feel-good-chart.

NestleChart_EURO.PNG

 

This are some historical dividend data for them

nestle-dividend

As we can see, one of the highest yields the nestle stock offered in the last 14 years was 3.6% (data from finanzen.net). This don’t make them automatically cheap, but its a good starting point.
Nestlé’s last dividend was 2,25 CHF. I except the next dividend to be 2,3 CHF for 2017. This would translate into a ~3.3% dividend yield at the moment. When looking at the upper table, it is in the “better” range.

 

Pay out Ratio

payoutratio

They say their Free Cash Flow in 2015 was 9.9 bn CHF, which is pretty similar to “Profit for the year attributable to shareholders of the parent (Net profit)” which was 9.1 bn CHF. Annual Report 2015, page 39

Debt

Data from Morningstar (link)

The yields at which these bonds are traded for range from -0,38% (Nestlé Holdings 07/18 CHF) to 2,95% (Nestlé Holdings 14/20 AUD). The highest yield I can find in USD is 2,10%, the highes yield I can find in EUR is 0,42%. (source of information)

Looks like the market expects most risk in a Nestlé (bond) investing comes from currency risk.

 

Bottom Line

I am not expecting skyrocketing results from Nestlé. I see It as a good bond-substitute with a reasonable yield (that goes up as the years  are passing by) and don’t go to much down when the market does so. Therefor I am considering changing a/some more holdings of mine into this sector (Consumer Staples). Nestle for me is a good starting point for that.

 

Disclaimer: The content contained on this site represents only the opinions of its author(s). I may hold a position in securities mentioned on this site. In no way should anything on this website be considered investment advice and should never be relied on in making an investment decision. As always please do your own research!

 

Foot Locker, everything is running well

I wrote in my first article about foot locker:

Earnings per share in 2020 would be 7,19$ – I guess a stock of that quality could be sold for 15 times earnings. So that would be 107.85$ in year 2020. The price today is around 62$. That is a pretty nice upside of around 70% – not bad.

 

In my “buy” article about them I wrote:

Some more fun with numbers:

I looked at their debt situation to define a discount rate: Morningstar Debt/Bonds overview FL

They have a year 2022 – 8.5% bond outstanding which is currently trading at 4.93% yield to maturity. I assumed a 6.5% discount rate for the equity.

I calculated with the assumed sell price for the year 2020 which I see at 107,85$ (of course things could turn out quite different). I discounted this price with a rate of 6,5% and came up with a “net present value” of about 82$. (note: this calculation does not include or consider dividends).

Discount Rate
6,5%
2020 107,85
2019 100,83
2018 94,28
2017 88,15
2016 82,42
NPV 82,42
Current price 63,2
Upside 30%

Bottom line:

Considering the stock is now somewhere around 60 US$, this produces a 30% upside. So I bought a small amount.

 

Lets summarise this:

Foot Locker was at 63.0 USD when I bought it

Foot locker is now at 73.68 USD

I estimated the y2020 value of FL 107.85 USD (NPV of that was 82,42 for me)

I thought a PE of 15 would be fair

 

What happend at FL in the mean time:

The 3Q2016 reads like this:

Net income for the Company’s third quarter ended October 29, 2016 was $ 157
million, or $1.17 per share, compared with net income of $80 million, or $0.57 per share in the same period of 2015.
Nice!
Third quarter comparable – store sales increased 4.7percent.
Wow! That sounds healty!

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Bending the odds in your Favor?

A little excursion in the world of betting:

A german Betting-Agency is offering you 100€ if you create a new account. (I don’t say which because I don’t want to promote them). Maybe there is a way to bend the odds in my favor with that. Let’s calculate the probabilities on that.

 

The terms of that offer are:

  • if you pay in 100€ you will get additionally 100€ betting money for free
  • you have to be a new customer
  • you have to bet twice on a bet with a quote of min. Quote of 3,00 (!)
  • you have 90 days time for that
  • real money and your bonus money will be accounted separately (?)
  • money you made with the bonus money can’t be transferred to the real money account (???)
  • no long-term bets

 

(???) Really, whats the point then guys? The fake money you gave me should stay in a fake account you gave me untill I have lost it on some low probability bets? Then the sunk cost fallacy kicks in and I want to win my lost money back and you have created a new customer? Really? Is that your plan? Conclusion for me: always read the fine print!

But I still want to make the math on that:

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