Some Links on M&A Activities, Interest rates affecting REIT’s, Jim Chanos, Woodford, …

Highly recommended:

AdventuresinCapitalism on raised rates on REITS (link)

Look at the charts of various smaller REITs that aren’t being propped up with broad market ETF inflows. These things are getting nuked—particularly in the retail sector.

I did the math of the example mentioned:


“To Buy or Not To Buy” – Credit-Suisse on M&A (link)

Companies that act early in an M&A cycle tend to generate higher returns than those that act later.

Empirical analysis shows that M&A creates value in the aggregate, but that the seller tends to realize most of
that value.
Peter Clark and Roger Mills, finance experts who focus on M&A, found that deals they call “opportunistic,” where a weak competitor sells out, succeed at a rate of around 90 percent. “Operational” deals, or cases where there are strong operational overlaps, also have an above-average chance of success.

Jim Chanos Interview (link)

Neil Woodford himself (link)

We are more upbeat on the outlook for the UK economy than many commentators – the market consensus, in our view, has become too bearish in the aftermath of the Brexit vote

Brooklyn Investor commenting Buffett’s CNBC Interview (link)

… but history shows that the market does in fact use interest rates to value the stock market however theoretically wrong it may be, and the greatest investor of all time does so too.

Links: A lot of Q4 letters, Bogle, and Warren Buffett Movie

A great List of Q4 Letters and Reports at reddit (link)

Including: RV Capital, Fairholme, Third Point, Tweedy Browne, Sequoia, Bill Gross, … and many more!

(also see my quality-sources section for more stuff like that)

If you are searching for Baupost/Seth Klarman try this link

The Brooklyn Investor, always worth a read: Bogle Book, Indexing etc.

So Why Not Buy Apple.?! form Wexboy

Are UK Equities overvalued from Mitchell Fraser-Jones at woodfordfunds

The UK stock market’s current PE of about 15x this year’s anticipated earnings, implies a real annualised total return of approximately 8% over the next 10 years, based on the historic trend shown on the chart. This isn’t bad, in our view, especially when compared to the likely returns available from other asset classes.

If you always wanted to see how Warren Buffett orders sausage mc muffin at McDrive on the way to work – today is your day!

If link is broken try this search

Some links: Gates, WB, Fundsmith and more

The bromance continues: Bill Gates and Warren Buffett at Columbia 27th Jan 2017

The funniest part is this comment from warren about bing (link) about Bestinvest’s top 10 list (Fonds)

Fundsmith adopts a Warren Buffet-style approach to investing. Picking out consumer brands and companies that have the power to maintain and raise prices and deliver returns over time, with the aim being to hold them for the long-term and have very little turnover in shares.

Continue reading

Some links / Quality Sources

basehitinvesting on the importance-of-knowing-your-investment-boundaries

About the circle of competence, the ability to say no, Sears, Retail and Sum of Parts in Retail …

Everyone talks about circles of competence, but one of the greatest skills Buffett and Munger have is their ability to say “no” to ideas that are too difficult. Their ability to successfully stay within their boundaries (most of the time) comes from their unique combination of incredible brain power and unusual humility. Most people who are smart and ultra-driven (character traits of most successful people) have a hard time saying “no” to challenging new ideas.

alphavulture blog had a fantastic 2016 performance

Some very unusual holdings – the success speaks for itself

Conservativeincomeinvestor liked (Nov. 2016) CVS Health at 81$

Price have not moved much since then = maybe still nice?

I have actualized the Quality Sources section of Valuetradeblog. There are now more European “Gurus” like:

Some links

A nice, not so old Interview with Warren Buffett in which he:
– says Wacovia, Fannie & Freddy were dead
– admires JP Morgan & Jamie Dimon
-admires the management of Coca-Cola

A nice, old speech (from 1995, quality 1970) of Warren in which he explains his investing process (link)

Bronte Capital with a nice exercise about valuing a Company (link)

Neil Woodford (UK) on 2016 and his 2017 outlook (link)

Last post for 2016 – Some links

Brooklyn Investor

Is the Market overbought after this Trump-Ralley? …

Brooklyn Investor about the Market situation today (link)


Eddy Elfenbein

Eddy’s 25 Stocks for 2017 (link)

The ten new stocks are Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA), Cinemark Holdings (CNK), Continental Building Products (CBPX), Danaher (DHR), Ingredion (INGR), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Moody’s (MCO), RPM International (RPM), Sherwin-Williams (SHW) and JM Smucker (SJM).

CBPX, INGR, RPM are new to me, the others are High-Quality Companies. Wasn’t Axalta a BRK buy this year?



MMI’s 27 Stocks for 2017 (link)


And finally a graph:

Maybe CBS is worth a look? Infographic: America's Favorite TV Programs | Statista
You will find more statistics at Statista


I wish you a good, successful and healthy 2017.

Some links

Meb Faber about “timing” the market / switching asset classes / considering CAPE ratios

It seems detractors are asking CAPE to clearly tell us “in or out” applied to just one asset class or market. But is that fair? Or even rational? No.

So what sort of missed market gains would that have translated into for this individual? As referenced at the top of this paper, 780%.

The tourist won the hand, but does that mean he made a good bet? Of course not.  He transformed his odds of winning the hand from roughly 70% to an almost certainty of losing by taking another card.

In this scenario, let’s compare our switching systems to a new strategy in which we invest in the cheapest 25% of global stock markets as identified by the CAPE ratio.

CAPE = Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio (wikipedia)

Thinking about my Nestle post, the-conservative-income-investor likes Anheuser Busch for the same reasons (link)

Anheuser-Busch pays out $4.40 per share in dividends, and has raised it every year under 3G management. At a price of $101 per share, that is a 4.35% starting yield.

Someone buying Anheuser-Busch is setting themselves up for a 4% dividend yield and 8-9% annual returns on a pre-tax basis.

The earnings of $2.10 do not reflect Anheuser-Busch’s earnings power because the figure is clouded by enormous integrative expenses with SABMiller, and the dollar strength matters because Anheuser-Busch Inbev reports its earnings in Euros

Next year, Anheuser-Busch is going to report profits of around $5.75 per share. That is a P/E ratio of 17.5x earnings.

*good, steady dividend, reasonable growth assumptions

Donald Trumps biggest stock investments (article from august 2016)

Fannie & Freddie after the US election

IBorrowDesk – Nice to have informations like Fees about short selling (link)




Some old and new links

John Malone, The Cable Cowboy

John Malone: the mystery method behind a media empire at The Telegraph (link)

Liberty Global will fold Cable & Wireless’ equity into a special stock class, LiLac, created to give direct exposure to Latin America for those investors who want it. Malone, who already owns 13pc of Cable & Wireless, will be paid in LiLac stock, while other investors in the British company will get Liberty Global shares.

Liberty Media is buying the Formula One and will be renamed into Formula One Group (see NAV on page 22) (link)

About Annual Letters

The Best Annual Letters – Article by Jason Zweig (link)

We read tons of hedge fund letters so you didn’t have to – here’s what they said about Brexit (link)

Warren Buffett and Friends

A newer Interview of Warren Buffett (link)

An Interview from December 2000 with Tom Murphy from Capital Cities/ABC, one of Warren Buffett’s biggest investments. Seems like Warren copied Murphy’s leadership-methods (link)

How to invest like… Warren Buffett’s hero Philip Carret

Phil Carret’s ’12 commandments’

  1. Never hold fewer than  10 different securities covering five different fields  of business;
  2. At least once every six months, reappraise every security held;
  3. Keep at least half the total fund in income-producing securities;
  4. Coonsider [dividend] yield the least important factor in analysing any stock;

… read more

Foot Locker

And a report on Foot Locker (link)

but the average Foot Locker brick-and-mortar visitor is between ages 14 and 25

But online sales are still less than $1 billion of the whole company’s $7.4 billion in 2015

“How Foot Locker escaped the brick-and-mortar death spiral” on yahoo (link)

Planet Wall Street

Investorfieldguide on the long-term best performing sector (link) (spoiler: consumer-staples)

Ten Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street by thereformedbroker

The Goldman Sachs second annual Back-to-School Reading List (link)

Some links and some HealthCareStocks worth a look

  • Gannon and Hoang writing about MSC Industrial Direct (MSM): A Metalworking Supply Company (link)
  • The Brooklyn Investor Blog is active again (link I), (link II)
  • I believe my pig whistles: Muddy Water, who famously short Ströer, released Ströer AGM Transcript (link)

ten Doornkaat: You then said you had an investigation conducted by Ernst & Young (EY). This is the same company that prepared the annual financial statements. What did you expect? That they would come forward and say, Oops, sorry, we’ve made a mistake, we’re returning our auditor’s licence to practice? This is laughable.

No need. The technology is so sophisticated that I can hear you even when I’m
ten Doornkaat:
Good. Then perhaps you can come up with some answers while you’re peeing, too.
Tüngler:  A clear opinion has emerged, which we at the DSW share, that the numbers
have not been manipulated, massaged or falsified.


Continue reading

Some links


Bruce Berkowitz Comments on Individual Holdings in Mid-Year Letter (link)

The Funds own senior bonds of Atwood due 2020 with a 17% yield to maturity. Year-to-date, Atwood has retired over 30% these bonds due 2020 via open market purchases and a $150 million cash tender offer announced in late June. These events indicate that management believes it has the financial wherewithal to meet all obligations and take advantage of market mispricing. An existing $220 million cash balance, available credit line, and current contractual backlog provide ample liquidity.

Atwood Oceanics is a leading offshore driller


FPA Capital

FPA Capital Fund 2nd Quarter 2016 Commentary (link)



First look at Fiserv

Fiserv, Inc., is an American provider of financial services technology. The company’s clients include banks, thrifts, credit unions, securities broker dealers, leasing and finance companies, and retailers, among others. I see Fiserv as a high quality buisiness with good predictability.

This are Fiserv’s Sales (left) and Earnings (right) per Share (provided by


This is the PE Ratio for which FISV was selling for since 2000 (provided by

Fiserv_PE Ratio.PNG

The expected EPS-Range for 2016 is $4.38 to $4.45 per share. The stock is selling for about 105 USD. So the expected PE-Ratio is now at about 24 to 23,6 – which is normal for a company of this quality.