I am back from my vacation, some updates and notes:

Saleorder I installed for BT Group striked and I sold my Position with an acceptable profit (annualized). I am still not sure if I want to do things like that in the future considering the risk/reward profile of that investment speculation.


Foot Looker released some good Q4 numbers. The stock now sales for ~15.5 earnings. Btw. I like their reporting.

The Company’s net income increased to $664 million in 2016, or $ 4.91 per share, compared to net income of $541million, or $3.84 per share in 2015.
Seems like Hormel Foods and L Brands disappointed investors. Both stocks lost recently. I am planing to lock at them.
French Vivendi goes down and down slowly… maybe I will look at it again. (Bollore stayed more or less flat)



To Do list:

  • Read Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter
  • looking at Hormel Foods again
  • looking at Danaher
  • looking at Vivendi
  • looking at L Brands (Victorias Secret)



6 thoughts on “Update

  1. Nice timing on BT. Have you taken a deeper look into the business model, or was this really just pure speculation “on the news”?

    Because, I think the company is somehow interesting, but I have problems evaluating their “Openreach” business which accounts for ~35-40% of their EBITDA and operating profits. BT has to take of lot of critic that they are, essentially, profiting from a monopoly situation which could force regulators to react. Any thoughts on that?



    • Hi, Thank you.
      I have looked at the company their history and their management.

      Previous decisions from regulators according Openreach were in favour of BT – will that change? I dont know.

      About 60% of Openreach revenue is “internal” – that gives some more safety.
      The DA of Openreach EBITDA is high – Operating Income from “BT Buissines” is about the same (302 vs 362mn for 9M).

      I liked it, in hignsight it was good to provide liquidity to people who fled. If it would take longer I would get a good dividend.
      But i am not sure if 10% profit were worth taking the risk. And I like to have some Cash around now.

      ps: probably in 3 years when the stock is at 5€ or 6€ I will read this and will feel like a donkey 😉


  2. In my calculation the core business of Vivendi is currently worth 11 €, 6 € are in there stocks, other investments and cash. From my quick and dirty valuations Canal+ and UMG are trading at a PE of 24. It’s not that cheap, but earnings of Canal+ are really depressed and earnings of UMG are also depressed by losses in digital and physical sales. Streaming should take off a bit more in the coming years. I think for the growth UMG does not look that expensive. Canal+ is a real turnaround bet. It might work, but there is no certainty. The loss of the business in France was 400 Mio € this year. If they make it come back to 0, the earnings of Canal+ will nearly double.
    There is also a potential in the shares of TIM they hold. Therefore I have bought some at 17 €, which was a bit too early. But wouldn’t recommend it currently.


  3. I think their holding in TIM is worth more.

    Sadly I bought a small amount of stock at 3,80 🙈
    2016 doesn’t look that bad. Q4 is the best quarter. Oil prices and natural resources both kick in at Transport and Oil logicstics. I think this might change in 2017. Communication is growing steadily. Profits might be a bit down, but let’s wait for the official numbers.


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