We believe the company’s stock is extremely undervalued trading at more than a 60% discount to our estimate of its intrinsic value.
– Evermore Global / semi-annual report / June 30, 2016,
Valuation / sum of parts
I used market value for Havas & Vivendi (and of course their Portfolio)
I derived Value of Transport & Logistic from MuddyWaters & Evermore reports – and tried not to be to aggressive/positive here.
I used the latest Debt numbers I could find (maybe they financed their last buy of 5% vivendi – from 15% to 20% – partly with debt), I have not calculated cash.
I used a conglomerate discount of 20%. As I see the holding structure with Vincent Bolloré as value-creating, I put back 16% for his capital allocation skills (~Vincent Bolloré CARG).
The market capitalisation is according to consorsbank now at 10,4 bn €.
Mr. Bolloré is an outstanding capital allocator, and has grown the share price and book value of BOL over the past 20 years, respectively, by 1,213% and 1,953%.
Let’s start with the first valuation of my 2017 To-Do list: French conglomerate Bolloré
As ebdem wrote in the comments, Bolloré is maybe a good choice. MuddyWaters valued it at 8.5€ in February 2015 … the stock is now around 3.50€. One point MuddyWatres made are the cross holdings which virtually reduce the shares outstanding.
If the stock really was that undervalued a share buyback (maybe in the form of more cross holdings) would definitely make sense. I will look out for that – of course there is a good chance that Mr. Bolloré knows better how to allocate capital than me 😉
Vincent Bolloré was is often named The Carl Icahn of France because of his active investment approach. Looking at the capital structure with a lot of listed subsidiaries reminds me a bit of John Malone/Liberty.
The operating business, which is very Africa, Logistics and Energy focused, did not have a good year in 2016 (3Q numbers are out). Turnover was down 10%.