Bending the odds in your Favor?

A little excursion in the world of betting:

A german Betting-Agency is offering you 100€ if you create a new account. (I don’t say which because I don’t want to promote them). Maybe there is a way to bend the odds in my favor with that. Let’s calculate the probabilities on that.

 

The terms of that offer are:

  • if you pay in 100€ you will get additionally 100€ betting money for free
  • you have to be a new customer
  • you have to bet twice on a bet with a quote of min. Quote of 3,00 (!)
  • you have 90 days time for that
  • real money and your bonus money will be accounted separately (?)
  • money you made with the bonus money can’t be transferred to the real money account (???)
  • no long-term bets

 

(???) Really, whats the point then guys? The fake money you gave me should stay in a fake account you gave me untill I have lost it on some low probability bets? Then the sunk cost fallacy kicks in and I want to win my lost money back and you have created a new customer? Really? Is that your plan? Conclusion for me: always read the fine print!

But I still want to make the math on that:

You have to bet twice on a min. 3,00 quote. A 3,00 quote means that if you bet 100 € you will get your money back x 3,00 if you are right. Translated into a probability these means a 33% of likelihood (according to the link below).

When you win twice you will get 100€ * 3 * 3 = 900€ back of which 800€ is your profit.
When you win twice you will get 200€ * 3 * 3 = 1800€ back of which 1700€ is your profit.

bet1

The odds for that in both cases are 1 * 0,33 * 0,33 = ~11%

bet2

So basically you could buy a bet worth 188,89€ for 100€, … basically .

(if you found some mistakes, or you would calculate something different please inform me!)

 

 

helpful links:

http://www.bettingexpert.com/de/academy/fortgeschrittene-wett-theorie/wettquoten-in-wahrscheinlichkeiten-umwandeln

 

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